Imad Harb

The American primary season is in full swing, with more than half of the states of the Union already finished with their primaries and caucuses to choose the ultimate nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties. From the looks of it, this election is a clear contest of ideas and personalities at a time of great concern in the United States about the future course of the country and the potential impact it might have on international trends and prospects. But most importantly, this election comes when America feels a great need to re-define its priorities and to re-direct its energies after eight years of contentious domestic politics and costly foreign entanglements. Concomitantly, the new president will have the ultimate responsibility of channeling American hopes in a new direction that best serve the country's interests.

Domestically, Americans are besieged by economic problems and contentious social issues they want to resolve. Unemployment is climbing, deficit spending is increasing, and household incomes are declining, all in a market of a weak dollar, a credit crunch, a crisis caused by subprime mortgages, and a huge trade deficit. What is worse, there is an obvious crisis of confidence in the ability of the Bush Administration to halt the downturn in the economy. From attempts to make tax cuts passed in 2001 permanent to a 2009 budget proposal that tops $3 trillion and contains a deficit of $415 billion and $515 billion for military spending, the administration seems to have lost credibility as a good steward for the country's wellbeing.

On social issues, Americans seek sensible answers to such concerns as social security and Medicare benefits (whose growth is cut in the newest budget proposal), immigration, abortion, education, and religion in politics. While the administration has tried to steer the country in a more conservative direction, most concerned Americans want moderate solutions to these problems. They want an equitable society that does not leave the destitute behind, have no problem with immigrants and appreciate their contributions to society, support individual liberty, advocate a sensible education policy, and like to keep the Bible out of matters of state. In general, they prefer a spirit of cooperation and bipartisanship instead of what seems at times as an intense struggle between two cultures separated by division and discord.

Internationally, Americans find themselves at the wrong end of a series of ill-advised adventures born of the desire of a clique of neoconservatives to re-shape the world according to their wishes. Since 2001, and aided by the terrorist attacks of September 11, these chose to ride the horse of America's military might to Afghanistan and Iraq and into the abyss of an unending `war on terror,' only to discover that dreams of American superiority cannot be easily realized. America thus became similar to the hated colonial powers of yesteryears when it should have been the beacon it always intended to be. If US primary elections have an international dimension to them, it is that the United States must pull back from the edge of unending warfare and bellicosity and try to help bring peace to the world.

The main contenders of this primary season realize the importance of addressing these issues. They, however, differ as to what the best combination of solutions might be. On the Democratic side, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have proposed a series of ideas that revolve around a rollback of the politics and policies of the past eight years. On the other hand, Republicans Senator John McCain and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee represent a modified continuation of the economic, social, and international policies of the Bush Administration. Whatever the outcome of the primary contest, America will choose two Democratic and Republican finalists for a November battle between competing elements of continuity and change. The one who wins would have found the best combination of both.

At the moment, the Democratic field is hard to predict, with Clinton and Obama splitting party support down the middle. What is obvious, however, is that Clinton is no longer the presumptive nominee everyone thought she was only a few months ago. Obama's message of change, his inevitable claim to the African-American vote in the Democratic Party, and the Clintons' less-than-charming appeal are helping to give her the contest of her life. Indeed, Obama's performance on Super Tuesday and since may force a raucous settling of accounts by the party's super-delegates at the National Convention in Denver, Colorado, at the end of next August.

On the Republican side, Senator McCain seems to have wrapped up the party's nomination even before he reaches the coveted minimum number of 1,191 delegates. All former Governor Huckabee can do at this stage is try to valiantly keep the hopes of his evangelical base high by contesting as many of the remaining primary battles as good sense and his budget allow. Whatever the case may be, however, McCain the winner will have to come around to assert his conservative credentials to Huckabee's supporters if he wants to have a shot at the White House. What he may have to trade for their support is his moderation and willingness to forge bi-partisan compromises around the contentious issues besetting the country, in the process potentially losing the votes of independents and moderates.

While agreeing that America's national interests are the essence of its international position and engagement, the contenders have differing ideas about how to safeguard them. Iraq now is the country's major concern, and most complicated. Clinton and Obama trade barbs about who supported the war and who didn't. The former did and now proposes to end America's presence there over a few years' period while the latter wants to begin withdrawing now. McCain, on the other hand, has supported President Bush on Iraq from the start and envisions a prolonged presence of American troops. Whoever the eventual nominees are, Iraq will remain a thorny issue in the presidential contest along with those of Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and assertive Russia.

Priorities remain the essence of politics and America's presidential elections every four years are occasions for deciding what goes on the list. This year, Americans see a long one and are looking for the best candidate who can rally the country behind a good plan for achieving what's required. The present coterie of potential presidents may call for change or adhere to the tried-and-true path; but the eventual president will have to be one who can effectively combine the essence of change and the virtue of continuity to be successful in tackling America's many problems.

 

Especial arrangement with ECSSR : Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research